Research · Satire
ML Researcher Who Has Predicted AGI Within Two Years Every Year Since 2018 Predicts AGI Within Two Years
Dr. Raymond Cho says this time the prediction is based on a new set of indicators that are different from the indicators he cited in his previous six predictions.
CAMBRIDGE — Dr. Raymond Cho, a prominent machine learning researcher and author of the widely-read newsletter “The Intelligence Horizon,” published his annual AGI forecast Thursday, predicting that artificial general intelligence will be achieved within two years.
This is the seventh consecutive year in which Dr. Cho has published a prediction of AGI within two years.
“This time the analysis is different,” said Cho, who made this claim in 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, and 2018. “We’re looking at compute scaling curves, emergent capabilities, and a new theoretical framework I’ve developed that I call the Recursive Substrate Hypothesis.”
The Recursive Substrate Hypothesis, which Cho described in a 6,000-word newsletter post, holds that intelligence will emerge from current systems in a manner consistent with predicting it will emerge within two years.
Critics have noted that Cho’s prior predictions were also described as “different this time” and were made with similar confidence.
“The difference,” said Cho, “is that I’m right this time.”
In the comments section of the newsletter post, 847 people agreed with him. 23 people did not, and were told to “touch grass.”
At press time, Cho had published a follow-up post clarifying what he meant by “two years.”
